Numbers Runner
S&P 500766.48+0.42%Developed102.87-0.66%Gold379.69-0.61%Volatility18.75+1.68%Bitcoin81,362-0.60%ETF prices · last close

Studies: volume, volatility, trendAll lessons

Correlation

Correlation chart

What it is: whether two things move together. +1 is lockstep, 0 is unrelated, -1 is exact opposites. Measured on daily RETURNS, not on prices — two stocks that both drift up over a year look correlated on a price chart even when their day-to-day moves are unrelated.

Why it is the most under-used number in retail investing: eight positions feels diversified. If six of them are correlated at 0.8+, you do not own eight positions — you own about two, at triple the position size you think. That is how a portfolio that looked sensible drops 30% in a week.

On this chart: NVDA and AMD run at 0.51. Buying both is not a hedge and is barely a second idea. Watch where GLD and XOM sit against the tech block — that is what actual diversification looks like as a number.

The catch nobody mentions: correlations go to 1 in a crash. The diversification you measured in calm markets is exactly the diversification that stops working on the day you need it.

How to use it: before adding a position, check its correlation to what you already own. If it is above 0.7, you are adding size, not adding an idea.